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台币汇率|台湾央行原副总裁周阿定谈汇率改革与风险防范的台湾经验

台湾央行原副总裁周阿定谈汇率改革与风险防范的台湾经验编者按7月24日,2016国际货币论坛暨《人民币国际化报告》发布会在中国人民大学隆重举行。本次论坛由中国人民大学与交通银行联合主办,中国人民大学国际货币研究所(IMI)承办。论坛由开幕式暨

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台币汇率|台湾央行原副总裁周阿定谈汇率改革与风险防范的台湾经验的详细说明:

台湾央行原副总裁周阿定谈汇率改革与风险防范的台湾经验

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┚7月24日,2016国际货币论坛暨《人民币国际化报告》发布会在中国人民大学隆重举行。本次论坛由中国人民大学与交通银行联合主办,中国人民大学国际货币研究所(IMI)承办。论坛由开幕式暨《人民币国际化报告》发布会与四个平行论坛组成。

在平行论坛一上,台湾央行原副总裁、台北外汇市场发展基金会董事长周阿定先生发表了题为“汇率改革与风险防范——台湾经验”的演讲,他认为从目前来看,要实现人民币国际化,首先要฿解决的问题就是如何继续推进汇率改革以及如何在此过程中防范可能发生的风险。为此他系统梳理了台湾汇率制度改革的过程以及在此期间风险防范的举措,希望台湾的经验能够为推动人民币顺利实现国际化提供借鉴。

以下为根据其演讲整理的会议纪要:

目前中国已经成长为世界上最大的贸易国、世界第二大经济体,并且长期保持贸易顺差。从贸易需求角度来说,人民币具有“走出去”的条件和必要性。但是要实⑷现人民币的国际化,不能单从贸易便利性的角度考虑,人民币必须还能够在较长时期内保持币值的相ǘ对稳定,为持有者提供“价值储藏”。而要实现这一点,资本账户的开放是一个必要的前提。从目前的情况来看,首先要解决的问题就是如何继续推进汇率改革以及如何在此过程中防范可能发生的风险。本文希望通过梳理台湾汇率改革的过程,为人民币汇率的改革和风险防范提供经验支持。

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 一、台湾汇率改革的过程——循序渐进、逐步开放

1、新台币实现汇率市场化的过程

从整体上说,从1978年开始,台湾的汇率市场化改革分为三个阶段:

(1)以顾客市场供需情况会商议定汇率阶段(1979年2月-1982年8月)

台湾于1979年2月成立了正式意义上的“外汇市场”。 由央行及五家主要外汇指定银行逐日公告中心汇率及上下限(当日公告中心汇率为36元,上下限为35.85-35.95),每日中心汇率变动幅度上下限为0.5%。而外汇交易中心视银行与顾客交易(顾客市场)之“买卖超”情况进行调整。之后,1980年3月3日取消新台币对美元中心汇率上下限,每日汇率变动幅度为1%,买卖价差不得超过新台币1角。

(2)银行间市场决定中心汇率阶段(1982年9月-1989年4月)

1981年8月12日外汇交易中心议定将新台币对美元汇率由36.24元贬至38元,计贬值4.86%。这一期间,以银行间市场美元交易之加权平均价格作为次营业日之“中心汇率”,每日变动幅度为中心汇率上下2.25%。而在顾客市场买卖差价的规则是:每笔交易金额在3万美元以下,中心⺮汇率上下5分;每笔交易金额在3万美元以上,中心汇率上下1角。

(3)自由汇率阶段(1989年4月-至今)

台湾于1989年4月3日取消“中心汇率制度”, 新台币对美元交易价格的完全自由化。小额结汇(3万美元以内)汇率在议订汇率上下1角内挂牌买卖,价差不得超过1角。(1990.7.28扩大为议订汇率上下2角内。1990.12.29取消小额结汇议订汇率制)。

2、汇率市场化之后的管理

在新台币完成市场化之后,汇率的管理进入了一个新的时期,目前台湾运用“动态稳定”的汇率政策对新台币汇率的波动实施管理。新台币汇率原则上由外汇市场供需决定,央行基本上尊重市场机能。但汇率在短期间经常受不规则因素(如英国脱欧导致短期资金大量进出)﹣、季节性因素及预期心理等所影响,以致新台币汇率过度波动与失序变动时,央行将适时进场调节,以维持外汇市场秩序。

从汇率管理的效果来看,目前台湾对汇率所实施的“动态稳定”政策已经取得了良好的调控效果。首先,近年来,新台币有效汇率指数大致上维持在过去36个月移动平均值上下5个百分点的范围内。新台币汇率反映经济基本面,具动态稳定的特性。其次,根据央行对于汇率反应函数(reaction function)的相关实证研究,亚洲主要国家货币中,新台币与新加坡币具有反通膨(anti-inflation)及反景气循环(counter-cyclical fluctuations)的功能。 若国内物价涨幅偏高(如因国际原物料价格上涨)或实际产出偏高时,新台币升值以抑制物价上涨与过热的经济;反之,新台币贬值以刺激经济。

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二、关于风险防范的经验

1、防范短期资金的大量流动

Ⅴ从台湾的经验来看,资本账户开放之后,短期资金的大量流动是影响汇率稳定的最大因素。开放资本账户之后,外资成为决定台湾股市价格走向和汇率波动的重要因素。外资流入导致新台币升值进而推动股价上涨;而外资流出直接导致股价下跌进一步带动新台币贬值。2008-2015年间,外资流动与台湾股价之间的相关系数达0.239;外资流动与新台币汇率之间的相关系数为-0.036。

由此可见,防范外资冲击是资本账户开放之后的一个首要任务。防范外资冲击必须首先构建完善的资本市场,循序渐进的开放资本账户。从1983年5月台湾开放海外基金间接投资台湾股市开始,到2003年7月取消所有关于外资投资台湾证券额度及持股比例限制,台湾实现资本项目的开放历时长达20年。资本账户的开放必须是一个循序渐进、逐步开放的过程。

2、防范人民币兑美元中间价的偏离

从实践经验来看,当前人民币对美元中间价是人民币汇率形成机制的重要环节,人民币对美元中间价也是市场判断人民币汇率走势的重要指标。而一旦人民币对美元中间价偏离市场行情,就会促使市场形成预期心里,而市场一旦达成人民币汇率升值或者贬值的一致预期,就会在短时间内出现大量购买或者抛售人民币的情况,这将对人民币汇率的稳定造成巨大冲击。

从台湾的经验来看,1990年之前,新台币对美元中心汇率的功能主要有:1

作为每日汇率变动2.25%之计算标准;2、作为银行与客户小额交易(每笔3万美元以下)挂牌汇率之参考。而随着台湾汇率市场化的推进,1990之后,台湾彻底取消了新台币对美元中心汇率。

3、推动主要国家央行货币政策的协调一致

威胁外汇市场稳定的另一个重要风险来自于主要国家政策之间的背离。在目前全球经济一体化程度逐渐加深的大背景下,一国央行的货币政策往往会对本国之外的国家产生“溢出效应”。特别是美国、欧洲等主要发达国家货币政策的实施,对新兴市场等国家和地区的外汇市场会产生非常明显的影响。

プ在这种前提之下,要维护外汇市场的整体稳定,就必须强调各国之间的沟通和合作,加强各国央行之间▍的政策协调和一致,防范央行货币政策之间的背离。

总结以上两个方面,本文从台湾开放资本账户的过程和防范风险的措施当中可以得出以下两个方面的结论:

1、人民币加入SDR后的汇率改革及资本帐开放,都应采取循序渐进,逐步开放的过程,以减少可能的风险;

2、加强SDR的交易功能,提升其作为国际准备货币地位,并深化国际货币制度改革。

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观点整理  景麟德
图文排版  彭益

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Former Vice President of the Central Bank of Taiwan Zhou Ading talks about the Taiwan experience of exchange rate reform and risk prevention Editors note On July 24, the 2016 International Monetary Forum and the Renminbi Internationalization Report conference was held at Renmin University of China. This forum was jointly sponsored by Renmin University of China and Bank of Communications, and undertaken by the International Monetary Institute (IMI) of Renmin University of China. The forum consists of the opening ceremony and the launch of the Renminbi Internationalization Report and four parallel forums. At Parallel Forum 1, Mr. Zhou Ading, former vice president of the Taiwan Central Bank and chairman of the Taipei Foreign Exchange Market Development Foundation, delivered a speech entitled Exchange rate reform and risk prevention-Taiwan’s experience. He believed that from the current point of view, it is necessary to realize the RMB Internationalization, the first problem to be solved is how to continue to promote exchange rate reform and how to prevent possible risks in the process. For this reason, he systematically sorted out the process of Taiwans exchange rate system reform and measures to prevent risks during this period, hoping that Taiwans experience can provide a reference for promoting the smooth internationalization of the RMB. The following is a summary of the meeting compiled based on his speech: At present, China has grown into the worlds largest trading nation and the worlds second largest economy, and has maintained a long-term trade surplus. From the perspective of trade demand, the renminbi has the conditions and necessity to go out. However, to realize the internationalization of the renminbi, one cannot simply consider the convenience of trade. The renminbi must also be able to maintain a relatively stable currency value for a long period of time and provide holders with a store of value. To achieve this, the opening of the capital account is a necessary prerequisite. Judging from the current situation, the first problem to be solved is how to continue to promote exchange rate reform and how to prevent possible risks in the process. This article hopes to provide experience support for the reform of the RMB exchange rate and risk prevention by combing through the process of Taiwans exchange rate reform. u0026Nbsp;1. The process of Taiwan’s exchange rate reform-gradual and orderly opening up 1. The process of achieving exchange rate marketization for the New Taiwan dollar. On the whole, since 1978, Taiwan’s exchange rate marketization reform has been divided into three stages: (1 ) The exchange rate stage (February 1979-August 1982) was negotiated based on the supply and demand of the customer market. Taiwan established a formal foreign exchange market in February 1979. Daily announcements by the central bank and five major foreign exchange designated banks The central exchange rate and the upper and lower limits (the exchange rate of the announcement center on the day is 36 yuan, the upper and lower limits are 35.85-35.95), and the upper and lower limits of the daily central exchange rate change are 0.5%. The foreign exchange trading center considers the transaction between the bank and the customer (customer market). Afterwards, on March 3, 1980, the upper and lower limits of the central exchange rate between the New Taiwan Dollar and the U.S. dollar were abolished, and the daily exchange rate change was 1%, and the bid-ask spread should not exceed one cent of the New Taiwan Dollar. (2) Interbank Market Decision Center The exchange rate stage (September 1982-April 1989) On August 12, 1981, the Foreign Exchange Trading Center agreed to depreciate the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar against the US dollar from 36.24 yuan to 38 yuan, a depreciation of 4.86%. During this period, the interbank market The weighted average price of US dollar transactions is taken as the central exchange rate for the next business day, and the daily fluctuation range is 2.25% up and down the central exchange rate. The rule for the bid-ask spread in the customer market is: each transaction amount is below 30,000 US dollars, and the central exchange rate is up and down 5 points; each transaction amount is more than 30,000 U.S. dollars, and the central exchange rate is up and down 1 cent. (3) Free exchange rate stage (April 1989-present) Taiwan cancelled the central exchange rate system on April 3, 1989, New Taiwan dollar Complete liberalization of USD transaction prices. Small foreign exchange settlements (within 30,000 USD) exchange rates are listed for trading within 1 cent of the negotiated exchange rate, and the price difference shall not exceed 1 cent. (1990.7.28 expanded to within 2 cents of the negotiated exchange rate. On December 29, 1990, the exchange rate system for negotiating small foreign exchange settlements was cancelled). 2. Management after the marketization of the exchange rate After the completion of the marketization of the New Taiwan dollar, the management of the exchange rate has entered a new period. At present, Taiwan is applying a “dynamically stable” exchange rate policy. The fluctuation of the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar is managed. In principle, the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar is determined by the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market. The central bank basically respects market functions. However, the exchange rate is often affected by irregular factors (such as a large amount of short-term capital in and out of the United Kingdom due to Brexit) and seasonal When the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar fluctuates excessively and disorderly changes due to factors and expected psychology, the central bank will enter the market in a timely manner to maintain the order of the foreign exchange market. From the perspective of the effect of exchange rate management, Taiwan’s current exchange rate The policy has achieved good control effects. First of all, in recent years, the effective exchange rate index of the New Taiwan Dollar has generally remained within the range of 5 percentage points above and below the moving average of the past 36 months. The exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar reflects economic fundamentals and is dynamic and stable. Second, according to the central bank’s empirical research on the exchange rate reaction function (reaction function), among the major Asian currencies, the New Taiwan dollar It has the functions of anti-inflation and counter-cyclical fluctuations with the Singapore dollar. If the domestic price increase is too high (for example, due to the increase in international raw material prices) or the actual output is too high, the New Taiwan dollar will appreciate to curb price increases and an overheated economy; conversely, the New Taiwan dollar will depreciate to stimulate the economy. II. Experiences on risk prevention 1. Preventing large-scale short-term capital flows From Taiwan’s experience, after the capital account is opened, large-scale short-term capital flows are the biggest factor affecting exchange rate stability. After the capital account is opened, foreign capital has become a decisive factor for Taiwan. The stock market price trend and exchange rate fluctuation are important factors. The inflow of foreign capital leads to the appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar and thus promotes the rise of stock prices; and the outflow of foreign capital directly leads to the decline of stock prices and further drives the depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar. From 2008 to 2015, the correlation coefficient between foreign capital flows and Taiwan stock prices is up to 0.239; The correlation coefficient between the flow of foreign capital and the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar is -0.036. It can be seen that preventing foreign capital shocks is a primary task after the capital account is opened. To prevent foreign capital shocks, we must first build a sound capital market and gradually open the capital account From the beginning of Taiwan’s opening of overseas funds to indirectly invest in the Taiwan stock market in May 1983, to July 2003, all restrictions on foreign investment in Taiwan’s securities quotas and shareholding ratios were lifted, and it took as long as 20 years for Taiwan to open its capital account. Opening up must be a gradual and gradual process of opening up. 2. Preventing the deviation of the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar. From practical experience, the current central parity of the RMB against the US dollar is an important link in the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate. The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar is also a market judgment. An important indicator of the trend of the RMB exchange rate. Once the central parity of the RMB against the U.S. dollar deviates from the market, it will prompt the market to form expectations. Once the market reaches a consensus on the appreciation or devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, there will be a large number of purchases or sell-offs in a short period of time The situation of the renminbi will have a huge impact on the stability of the renminbi exchange rate. From Taiwan’s experience, before 1990, the central exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar against the US dollar mainly functions as follows: 1 as a calculation standard for daily exchange rate changes of 2.25%; 2 , As a reference for the listed exchange rate of small transactions between banks and customers (each under US$30,000). With the advancement of Taiwans exchange rate marketization, after 1990, Taiwan completely abolished the central exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar to the US dollar. 3. Promote major countries The harmonization of the central bank’s monetary policy threatens the stability of the foreign exchange market. Another important risk comes from the divergence between major national policies. Under the current background of the gradual deepening of global economic integration, a country’s central bank’s monetary policy tends to affect the foreign exchange market. Countries that have “spillover effects.” In particular, the implementation of monetary policies in major developed countries such as the United States and Europe will have a very obvious impact on the foreign exchange markets of emerging markets and other countries and regions. Under this premise, it is necessary to maintain the foreign exchange market To achieve overall stability, it is necessary to emphasize communication and cooperation between countries, strengthen policy coordination and consistency between central banks of various countries, and prevent deviations between central bank monetary policies. To summarize the above two aspects, this article starts from the process of opening up Taiwan’s capital account and The following two conclusions can be drawn from the measures to prevent risks: 1. The exchange rate reform and capital account opening after the entry of the RMB into the SDR should adopt a gradual and gradual process of opening to reduce possible risks; 2. Strengthen the SDR Transaction function, improve its work Prepare currency status for the world and deepen the reform of the international currency system. Arrangement of views u0026nbsp;Jinglinde graphic layout u0026nbsp;Peng Yi click to view recent hot articles Liu Jun: China should use market forces to reduce production capacity Song Ke, deputy director of IMI: Why renew the gold standard Pei Changhong: Four major practical measures to deal with the decline in private investment growth Jia Kang: The internationalization of the renminbi must first solve the leading problem of institutional supply. Li Yang: Straightening out the domestic financial market can promote the internationalization of the renminbi and the marketization of interest rates. Welcome to join the group chat for To enhance interaction with fans, IMI Finance Watch will establish a WeChat exchange group, and everyone is welcome to participate. How to join the group: Add the group owner as a WeChat friend (WeChat ID: imi605), and note personal name (real-name authentication), unit, position and other information when adding it. After being reviewed by the group owner, you can be pulled into the group. Readers and friends are welcome to leave a message and interact with us. If you recommend good articles, please contact: Email imi@ruc.edu; Tel: 010-62516755 Taiwan Dollar Exchange Rate About Us Taiwan Dollar Exchange Rate The International Monetary Institute (IMI) of Renmin University of China was established on December 20, 2009 Japan is a non-profit academic research institution and a new type of professional think tank focusing on monetary and financial theory, policy and strategy research. Pan Gongsheng, Vice Governor of the People’s Bank of China, and Nobel Prize winner Mundell served as the chairman of the IMI Advisory Committee. The members include Edmund, Chen Yunxian, Hanke, Li Ruogu, Li Yang, Ma Delun, Ren Zhigang, Suning, Wang Zhaoxing, Wu Twelve famous economists or policy leaders at home and abroad including Qing, Xia Bin, Yassin Anwar, etc.; Chen Yuli, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, serves as the chairman of the Academic Committee, which consists of 47 domestic and foreign research institutes and government departments Or composed of famous experts and scholars from financial institutions. The directors, joint directors, and executive directors of IMI are Zhang Jie, Cao Tong, and Ben Shenglin respectively, and Xiang Songzuo, Tu Yonghong, and Song Ke are deputy directors. Since 2012, the Institute has regularly released the Renminbi Internationalization Report every year, focusing on major theoretical and policy issues facing the process of RMB internationalization. The report has also been translated into English, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Arabic and other versions and published in Beijing, Hong Kong, New York, Frankfurt, London, Singapore, and Almaty, which has attracted widespread attention from both domestic and foreign theoretical and practical circles. So far, the Institute has formed five research directions: International Finance, Macroeconomic Theory and Policy, Financial Technology, Wealth Management, and Financial Supervision. It also regularly holds monetary and financial roundtable meetings and financial A series of high-level forums or lectures with important academic influence such as the Thought Salon, Yanshan Forum, McKinnon Forum, Taoxiang International Finance Lecture. Main academic products include IMI Financial Books, International Monetary Review (Chinese Monthly u0026 English Quarterly), IMI Research Trends (Weekly), International Monetary and Finance Daily Review (Japanese), etc. International Currency Network: imi WeChat ID: IMI Financial Observation (click to identify the QR code below to follow us) We only share the most valuable financial insights.
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